Modeling Uncertainty and Risk

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Course Focus

Rarely does a single factor alone predict an outcome, which is why decision making is never as simple as we would like it to be. In a competitive business environment, not taking this uncertainty into account has serious costs. In this course, you will use foundations in probability to describe risk mathematically and incorporate those calculations into your decisions so you can take them to the next level. Working through increasingly complex modeling situations, you will learn to use estimates of probable future outcomes for Go/No-Go decisions and to run a Monte Carlo simulation allowing you to examine outcomes that vary based on multiple, interdependent decisions.

Who Should Take this Course?

This course is appropriate for anyone from analyst to SVP-level who is looking for a deeper understanding of how to perform the statistical analyses that support key business decisions. Course content draws on examples across all business types.

Topics Include

  • Calculating marginal value for a binary decision

  • Determining optimal values for a repeating, sequential decision

  • Building risk aversion into your model

  • Calculating utility for a given decision

  • Developing and using a Monte Carlo simulation

  • Performing sensitivity analysis

  • Using expected utility to accommodate risk

Faculty

Course Cost US$1380
Hours to Complete Course: 9
CEUS earned 0.6
This course is part of one or more online certificates:

Please choose from the following course start dates:

05 December 2018
26 December 2018
16 January 2019
06 February 2019
27 February 2019
20 March 2019
10 April 2019
01 May 2019
22 May 2019
12 June 2019
03 July 2019
24 July 2019
14 August 2019
04 September 2019
25 September 2019
16 October 2019
06 November 2019
27 November 2019
18 December 2019
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